We took a breather in the past few days from all the furore surrounding today’s emergency budget and ran a quick sentiment analysis of the Labour leadership contest.  Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, David Miliband, Andy Burnham & last-minute nominee Diane Abbott  were selected to go head-to-head in a bid to lead their party after the election defeat.

One of the lingering early issues of the campaign has been the Oxbridge education of all of the contenders.  For example, influential blogger Guido Fawkes (18/6) ‘had to laugh at the Coronation Street “man of the people” look and feel’ of Ed Ball’s new website. The blogger also wondered ‘how many people from the real-world depicted by Corrie went to elite public schools, Oxford and on to Harvard’.

With the exception of Diane Abbott, they all followed the same path: Oxbridge, policy adviser to the Blair / Brown governments, then cabinet minister.  Some analysts felt the long-running contest had all the excitement of watching a punctured balloon trying to take off.  What were the differences between the candidates, where did they want to take the Party after its election defeat? Who was leading the pack?

It was a good week to take a look at the race, especially as the contenders went up against each other on Newsnight’s live TV debate with Jeremy Paxman and an audience of voters.

Figure 1: Buzz volumes for the Labour leadership discussion in online media

Over the reporting period, our system analysed around 14,000 mentions of the contest, in real-time, in online and social media.  The spike in coverage on 15 June was driven by news of the TV debate.

Ed Balls was by far the most talked about in the web discussion with more than 4,000 mentions.  Diane Abbott was in second spot with over 2,800 mentions.  Andy Burnham was the least talked about.

So, what’s been said about the five contenders over the reporting period.

We ran a quick comparison report to look at the sentiment scores for each in online media.

Figure 2: Sentiment for the Labour leadership discussion in online media

In terms of positive mentions – our system scored Ed Miliband highest at 32.3 per cent of his coverage.  Diane Abbott was second with 31.9 per cent.

Andrew Sparrow on The Guardian’s Politics Live Blog (16/6) analysed the performance of each candidate during the Newsnight debate with positive comments for Ed Miliband and Diane Abbott on their stance on immigration.  Ed Balls had apparently consolidated his position as the ‘anti-immigration’ candidate during the Q&A session, while ‘others, such as Ed Miliband and Abbott, showed more sophistication on this topic, pointing out the underlying problems, such as a shortage of housing’.

Positive comments for David Miliband included many tweets in support of his campaign and approval of his sharper style during the TV debate.

Andy Burnham was praised for his communication skills and focus on policy.  He was also singled out as the only candidate that was trending on Twitter after Newsnight.

There were also some favourable mentions of Ed Balls’ better-than-expected Newsnight performance.

However, there was criticism levelled at Ed Miliband over his move to distance himself from the war in Iraq and accusations that he was rewriting the history books.  Ed Balls was also in the firing line for his attempts to distance himself from the last Labour administration on immigration policy.  David Miliband attracted negative comment on his close ties with New Labour and Tony Blair and the war in Iraq.  Andy Burnham’s comment that the Iraq war gave hope to its people was also criticised.  Diane Abbott’s relationship with Michael Portillo on the TV show This Week generated negative mentions.

On 15 June, the Fabian hustings exit poll put Ed Miliband as favourite with 40 per cent approval.  Interestingly, Michael Crick (14/6) posted speculation that David Miliband might resign from politics altogether if Ed Miliband wins, because he might find it difficult to serve under his younger brother.